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GEOPOLITICS

Conflicts, treaties and international events currently priced by traders.

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GEOPOLITICS MARKETS

51 MARKETS · GEOPOLITICS

GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

VARYNO83%
MARKET83%AGREEMENT
Market 17 percentVARY 17 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $129K
FULL

We read this 0.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $107K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

VARYNO95%
MARKET94%AGREEMENT
Market 6 percentVARY 5 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $76K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $16K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $16K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

VARYYES70%
MARKET73%−3
Market 73 percentVARY 70 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $391K
FULL

We read this 2.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)6
  • Market Momentum (24h)-9.4
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.6
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Iran leadership change by December 31?

VARYNO88%
MARKET87%AGREEMENT
Market 13 percentVARY 12 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $146K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO68%
MARKET66%+2
Market 34 percentVARY 32 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $23K
FULL

We read this 2.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO87%
MARKET86%AGREEMENT
Market 14 percentVARY 13 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $7K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $31K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO74%
MARKET73%AGREEMENT
Market 27 percentVARY 26 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $22K
FULL

We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $17K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.3
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.2
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

VARYNO81%
MARKET80%AGREEMENT
Market 20 percentVARY 19 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $4K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $68K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.3
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO85%
MARKET86%AGREEMENT
Market 14 percentVARY 15 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $160K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.2
  • Volume Concentration-1.6
GEOPOLITICS78d LEFT

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

VARYNO89%
MARKET91%−2
Market 9 percentVARY 11 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $74K
FULL

We read this 1.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.3
  • Market Momentum (24h)4.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)3
GEOPOLITICS13d LEFT

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

VARYYES68%
MARKET71%−3
Market 71 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $109K
FULL

We read this 2.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)5
  • Market Momentum (24h)-9.4
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $18K
FULL

We read this 0.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-2.8
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $442
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)0
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS252d LEFT

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

VARYNO91%
MARKET90%AGREEMENT
Market 10 percentVARY 9 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $2K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

VARYNO76%
MARKET76%AGREEMENT
Market 24 percentVARY 24 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $15K
FULL

We read this 0.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.5
  • Market Momentum (7d)3
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO95%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 5 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $42K
FULL

We read this 0.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.4
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.1
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

VARYYES81%
MARKET75%+6
Market 75 percentVARY 81 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $50K
FULL

We read this 5.5 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)10
  • Market Momentum (7d)10
  • Volume Concentration-1.6
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

VARYNO85%
MARKET84%AGREEMENT
Market 16 percentVARY 15 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $2K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.9
  • Volume Concentration-3
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