PUTIN OUT AS PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA BY...?
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 90%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $2K
- LIQUIDITY
- $150K
- CLOSES
- 252D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- GEOPOLITICS
OUR TAKE
We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -0.5Market Momentum (7d)NEGATIVE
- -3Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 10% with $150K of live liquidity and $2K traded in the last 24 hours.
Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.
Our signals shift the estimate down 1 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 7DMARKET 11% → 10%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION NEGATIVE (-3)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 9%
Market 10% · bounded adjustment -1 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE