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MARKETS

Every market we track, with our call beside the market price. Filter by category, time to resolution or how the two numbers disagree.

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ALL MARKETS

301 MARKETS

GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

VARYNO83%
MARKET83%AGREEMENT
Market 17 percentVARY 17 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $129K
FULL

We read this 0.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $107K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS71d LEFT

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $39K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

VARYNO95%
MARKET94%AGREEMENT
Market 6 percentVARY 5 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $80K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
CRYPTO71d LEFT

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

VARYNO96%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 4 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $12K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.3
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.7
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $6K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
WEATHER71d LEFT

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $81K
FULL

Our estimate matches the market — there is no gap worth acting on.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.9
  • Market Momentum (7d)1
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

VARYNO81%
MARKET80%AGREEMENT
Market 20 percentVARY 19 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $12K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY7d LEFT

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

VARYYES91%
MARKET88%+3
Market 88 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $489K
FULL

We read this 3.3 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)9.4
ECONOMY71d LEFT

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

VARYNO89%
MARKET88%AGREEMENT
Market 12 percentVARY 11 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $17K
FULL

We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $16K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS71d LEFT

Trump out as President before 2027?

VARYNO96%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 4 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $34K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.4
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYYES91%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 92 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $413K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $36K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.3
  • Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $16K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS6d LEFT

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

VARYNO74%
MARKET73%AGREEMENT
Market 27 percentVARY 26 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $394K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.5
ECONOMY71d LEFT

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

VARYYES96%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 97 percentVARY 96 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $22K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $306K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
CRYPTO71d LEFT

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $19K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

VARYYES67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 66 percentVARY 67 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $630K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.7
  • Volume Concentration-1.9
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

VARYYES76%
MARKET76%AGREEMENT
Market 76 percentVARY 76 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $405K
FULL

We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)10
  • Market Momentum (24h)-6.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Iran leadership change by December 31?

VARYNO88%
MARKET87%AGREEMENT
Market 13 percentVARY 12 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $145K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
SPORTS5d LEFT

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

VARYNO88%
MARKET83%+5
Market 17 percentVARY 12 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $141K
FULL

We read this 4.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2.4
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.9
  • Market Momentum (7d)-7.3
SPORTS45d LEFT

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

VARYYES97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 98 percentVARY 97 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $14K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.2
SHOWING 24 OF 301