HOW IT WORKS

FROM SIGNALS
TO PROBABILITY.

Four steps between raw data and a number you can argue with.

READ THE MARKET BELIEF

We read live prices from Polymarket's public API: the odds traders are actually taking on both sides of a question, plus volume, liquidity and spread around them.

COLLECT REAL-WORLD SIGNALS

Separately we measure market structure — how the price has moved over an hour, a day and a week, and where the volume sits. For crypto questions we add live spot data from Binance: momentum and realised volatility of the underlying asset.

PRODUCE AN INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE

Signals are normalised, then applied to the market price as a bounded adjustment of at most 15 percentage points. The result is our call — YES or NO — with its own probability, so the two numbers can disagree without either being invented.

RECORD THE RESULT

When a market resolves, the forecast is written down: what we said, what the market said and what happened. Calibration is judged over time, not per call.

PROBABILITY, NOT PROPHECY.