VARY
MARKETS
TRENDING
TRACK RECORD
HOW IT WORKS
DEMO
TRENDING
Ranked by the size of the gap between our estimate and the market.
LIVE
UPDATED 09:17 PM
BIGGEST DISAGREEMENTS
ALL
CRYPTO
POLITICS
SPORTS
MACRO
TECH
SORT
TRENDING
CLOSING SOON
HIGHEST DIFFERENCE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
MACRO · VOL $23.0M · LIQ $778K
VARY CALL
NO
51
%
MARKET
50%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
10d
WHY NO?
10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
NO
51
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 50%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
POLITICS · VOL $16.2M · LIQ $423K
VARY CALL
NO
76
%
MARKET
75%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
793d
WHY NO?
793d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NO
76
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 75%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
POLITICS · VOL $15.5M · LIQ $339K
VARY CALL
NO
51
%
MARKET
50%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
793d
WHY NO?
793d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NO
51
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 50%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
POLITICS · VOL $13.2M · LIQ $357K
VARY CALL
NO
93
%
MARKET
92%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
793d
WHY NO?
793d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
NO
93
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 92%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
POLITICS · VOL $9.8M · LIQ $274K
VARY CALL
YES
55
%
MARKET
56%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
28d
WHY YES?
28d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES
55
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 56%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
CRYPTO · VOL $5.9M · LIQ $178K
VARY CALL
NO
82
%
MARKET
81%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LOW confidence
ENDS
117d
WHY NO?
117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
NO
82
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 81%
AGREEMENT
LOW
LOW confidence
WHY NO?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
POLITICS · VOL $4.4M · LIQ $230K
VARY CALL
NO
87
%
MARKET
86%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
117d
WHY NO?
117d
Iran leadership change by December 31?
NO
87
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 86%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
SPORTS · VOL $2.1M · LIQ $298K
VARY CALL
NO
73
%
MARKET
73%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
267d
WHY NO?
267d
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
NO
73
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 73%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
POLITICS · VOL $1.4M · LIQ $176K
VARY CALL
YES
57
%
MARKET
59%
DIFFERENCE
−2
pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
117d
WHY YES?
117d
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YES
57
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 59%
−2
pts
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
POLITICS · VOL $1.3M · LIQ $210K
VARY CALL
NO
88
%
MARKET
87%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
236d
WHY NO?
236d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
NO
88
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 87%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
SPORTS · VOL $896K · LIQ $294K
VARY CALL
NO
84
%
MARKET
83%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LOW confidence
ENDS
207d
WHY NO?
207d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
NO
84
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 83%
AGREEMENT
LOW
LOW confidence
WHY NO?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
POLITICS · VOL $765K · LIQ $188K
VARY CALL
NO
88
%
MARKET
86%
DIFFERENCE
+2
pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
117d
WHY NO?
117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
NO
88
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 86%
+2
pts
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
SPORTS · VOL $698K · LIQ $306K
VARY CALL
NO
82
%
MARKET
82%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
267d
WHY NO?
267d
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
NO
82
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 82%
AGREEMENT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
TECH · VOL $481K · LIQ $58K
VARY CALL
YES
80
%
MARKET
84%
DIFFERENCE
−4
pts
CONFIDENCE
HIGH
HIGH confidence
ENDS
25d
WHY YES?
25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YES
80
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 84%
−4
pts
HIGH
HIGH confidence
WHY YES?
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?
SPORTS · VOL $246K · LIQ $258K
VARY CALL
YES
78
%
MARKET
76%
DIFFERENCE
+2
pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
16h
WHY YES?
16h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-06?
YES
78
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 76%
+2
pts
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?
SPORTS · VOL $240K · LIQ $669K
VARY CALL
NO
52
%
MARKET
54%
DIFFERENCE
−2
pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
15h
WHY NO?
15h
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?
NO
52
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 54%
−2
pts
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-09-05?
SPORTS · VOL $202K · LIQ $164K
VARY CALL
NO
53
%
MARKET
56%
DIFFERENCE
−3
pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
ENDS
2h
WHY NO?
2h
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-09-05?
NO
53
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 56%
−3
pts
MEDIUM
MEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?
SPORTS · VOL $184K · LIQ $476K
VARY CALL
NO
77
%
MARKET
80%
DIFFERENCE
−3
pts
CONFIDENCE
HIGH
HIGH confidence
ENDS
18h
WHY NO?
18h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?
NO
77
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 80%
−3
pts
HIGH
HIGH confidence
WHY NO?
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?
CRYPTO · VOL $177K · LIQ $101K
VARY CALL
NO
90
%
MARKET
90%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LOW confidence
ENDS
25d
WHY NO?
25d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?
NO
90
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 90%
AGREEMENT
LOW
LOW confidence
WHY NO?
Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
SPORTS · VOL $108K · LIQ $311K
VARY CALL
NO
60
%
MARKET
68%
DIFFERENCE
−8
pts
CONFIDENCE
HIGH
HIGH confidence
ENDS
30d
WHY NO?
30d
Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
NO
60
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 68%
−8
pts
HIGH
HIGH confidence
WHY NO?
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6?
CRYPTO · VOL $47K · LIQ $25K
VARY CALL
NO
91
%
MARKET
89%
DIFFERENCE
+2
pts
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LOW confidence
ENDS
30h
WHY NO?
30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6?
NO
91
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 89%
+2
pts
LOW
LOW confidence
WHY NO?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 6?
CRYPTO · VOL $37K · LIQ $33K
VARY CALL
NO
67
%
MARKET
64%
DIFFERENCE
+3
pts
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LOW confidence
ENDS
18h
WHY NO?
18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 6?
NO
67
%
VARY CALL
MARKET 64%
+3
pts
LOW
LOW confidence
WHY NO?
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