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ELECTIONS13d LEFT

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

VARYYES67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 66 percentVARY 67 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $630K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.7
  • Volume Concentration-1.9
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

VARYNO67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 34 percentVARY 33 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $532K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
ECONOMY7d LEFT

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

VARYYES91%
MARKET88%+3
Market 88 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $489K
FULL

We read this 3.3 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)9.4
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYYES91%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 92 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $413K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

VARYYES76%
MARKET76%AGREEMENT
Market 76 percentVARY 76 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $405K
FULL

We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)10
  • Market Momentum (24h)-6.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
ELECTIONS6d LEFT

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

VARYNO74%
MARKET73%AGREEMENT
Market 27 percentVARY 26 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $394K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.5
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $306K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
ELECTIONS4d LEFT

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

VARYYES69%
MARKET68%AGREEMENT
Market 68 percentVARY 69 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $181K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.8
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES68%
MARKET67%AGREEMENT
Market 67 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $162K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)1
  • Market Momentum (24h)2.8
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.5
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO85%
MARKET86%AGREEMENT
Market 14 percentVARY 15 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $160K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.2
  • Volume Concentration-1.6
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Iran leadership change by December 31?

VARYNO88%
MARKET87%AGREEMENT
Market 13 percentVARY 12 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $145K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
SPORTS5d LEFT

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

VARYNO88%
MARKET83%+5
Market 17 percentVARY 12 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $141K
FULL

We read this 4.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2.4
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.9
  • Market Momentum (7d)-7.3
ELECTIONS4d LEFT

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

VARYYES70%
MARKET71%AGREEMENT
Market 71 percentVARY 70 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $138K
FULL

We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-6.9
  • Volume Concentration2.3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

VARYNO83%
MARKET83%AGREEMENT
Market 17 percentVARY 17 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $129K
FULL

We read this 0.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
FINANCE10d LEFT

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?

VARYNO95%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 5 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $120K
FULL

We read this 0.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.5
  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.1
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYYES68%
MARKET67%AGREEMENT
Market 67 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $119K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)3.3
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.7
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
GEOPOLITICS13d LEFT

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

VARYYES68%
MARKET71%−3
Market 71 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $110K
FULL

We read this 3.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)3
  • Market Momentum (24h)-9.4
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $107K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
OTHER29h LEFT

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $102K
FULL

We read this 3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.3
  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Volume Concentration0.2
SPORTS0h LEFT

Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05?

VARYYES70%
MARKET63%+7
Market 63 percentVARY 70 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $99K
FULL

We read this 6.9 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)7.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)7.4
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

VARYYES71%
MARKET66%+5
Market 66 percentVARY 71 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $99K
FULL

We read this 4.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)7.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)7.7
  • Volume Concentration0.1
POLITICS41h LEFT

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $93K
FULL

We read this 3.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.6
  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Market Momentum (7d)-6.6
SPORTS221d LEFT

Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

VARYNO81%
MARKET81%AGREEMENT
Market 19 percentVARY 19 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $89K
FULL

We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-2.1
ELECTIONS4d LEFT

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

VARYYES63%
MARKET66%−3
Market 66 percentVARY 63 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $83K
FULL

We read this 2.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-4.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2
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