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ECONOMY

Growth, jobs and inflation prints as the market prices them.

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ECONOMY MARKETS

11 MARKETS · ECONOMY

ECONOMY71d LEFT

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

VARYNO89%
MARKET88%AGREEMENT
Market 12 percentVARY 11 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $17K
FULL

We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY7d LEFT

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

VARYNO91%
MARKET87%+4
Market 13 percentVARY 9 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $629K
FULL

We read this 3.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)-8.8
  • Volume Concentration-2.4
ECONOMY71d LEFT

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

VARYYES96%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 97 percentVARY 96 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $22K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY71d LEFT

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

VARYNO79%
MARKET77%+2
Market 23 percentVARY 21 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $20K
FULL

We read this 1.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.5
ECONOMY49d LEFT

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

VARYYES79%
MARKET79%AGREEMENT
Market 79 percentVARY 79 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $23K
FULL

We read this 0.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ECONOMY49d LEFT

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

VARYYES79%
MARKET81%−2
Market 81 percentVARY 79 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $15K
FULL

We read this 1.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.7
  • Volume Concentration-2.8
ECONOMY98d LEFT

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

VARYYES55%
MARKET56%AGREEMENT
Market 56 percentVARY 55 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $21K
FULL

We read this 1.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.8
  • Volume Concentration-1.7
ECONOMY6d LEFT

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

VARYNO88%
MARKET81%+7
Market 19 percentVARY 12 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $25K
FULL

We read this 7.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2.9
  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Market Momentum (7d)-10
ECONOMY10d LEFT

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

VARYNO96%
MARKET92%+4
Market 8 percentVARY 4 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $20K
FULL

We read this 3.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-7.9
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.8
ECONOMY2d LEFT

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?

VARYNO78%
MARKET83%−5
Market 17 percentVARY 22 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $30K
FULL

We read this 4.5 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)4
  • Market Momentum (24h)7.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.8
ECONOMY13d LEFT

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

VARYNO62%
MARKET56%+6
Market 44 percentVARY 38 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $8K
FULL

We read this 6.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Market Momentum (7d)-10
  • Volume Concentration-1.6