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ELECTIONS

Races and results, ordered by the markets that move most.

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ELECTIONS MARKETS

93 MARKETS · ELECTIONS

ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $6K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.1
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

VARYNO81%
MARKET80%AGREEMENT
Market 20 percentVARY 19 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $12K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.2
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS71d LEFT

Trump out as President before 2027?

VARYNO96%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 4 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $35K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.4
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYYES91%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 92 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $413K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.6
ELECTIONS748d LEFT

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $36K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.3
  • Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS6d LEFT

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

VARYNO74%
MARKET73%AGREEMENT
Market 27 percentVARY 26 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $394K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.5
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $213K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

VARYYES67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 66 percentVARY 67 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $632K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.7
  • Volume Concentration-1.9
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYYES68%
MARKET67%AGREEMENT
Market 67 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $119K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)3.3
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.7
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS179d LEFT

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

VARYNO54%
MARKET54%AGREEMENT
Market 46 percentVARY 46 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $60K
FULL

We read this 0.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.3
  • Volume Concentration-2.8
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

VARYNO67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 34 percentVARY 33 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $527K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $20K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.4
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYNO68%
MARKET66%+2
Market 34 percentVARY 32 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $77K
FULL

We read this 1.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES68%
MARKET67%AGREEMENT
Market 67 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $166K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)1
  • Market Momentum (24h)2.8
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.5
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES65%
MARKET65%AGREEMENT
Market 65 percentVARY 65 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $33K
FULL

We read this 0.4 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.8
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS4d LEFT

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

VARYYES69%
MARKET68%AGREEMENT
Market 68 percentVARY 69 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $178K
FULL

We read this 0.8 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.8
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES69%
MARKET70%AGREEMENT
Market 70 percentVARY 69 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $55K
FULL

We read this 1.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-2.4
ELECTIONS4d LEFT

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

VARYYES63%
MARKET66%−3
Market 66 percentVARY 63 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $83K
FULL

We read this 2.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-4.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2
ELECTIONS71d LEFT

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

VARYNO64%
MARKET60%+4
Market 40 percentVARY 36 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $14K
FULL

We read this 4.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-7.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.2
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

VARYNO68%
MARKET65%+3
Market 35 percentVARY 32 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $45K
FULL

We read this 3.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.9
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

VARYNO69%
MARKET69%AGREEMENT
Market 31 percentVARY 31 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $45K
FULL

We read this 0.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2
  • Volume Concentration-2.4
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES72%
MARKET70%+2
Market 70 percentVARY 72 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $32K
FULL

We read this 2.4 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)6.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)4.4
  • Volume Concentration-2.5
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $4K
FULL

We read this 1.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.3
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.9
ELECTIONS38d LEFT

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

VARYYES65%
MARKET65%AGREEMENT
Market 65 percentVARY 65 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $45K
FULL

We read this 0.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.2
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