ABOUT VARY

Prediction markets are good at aggregating belief, but a price is still just one opinion with money behind it. VARY produces a second number: an independent probability estimate built from market behaviour and real-world signals rather than from the odds themselves.

Putting the two side by side makes the interesting part visible — the gap. When our estimate and the market agree, there is nothing to see. When they disagree, that disagreement is the story, and it is measured in percentage points rather than hype.

Market odds, volume and liquidity come live from Polymarket, and crypto questions also use live spot data from Binance. Our own adjustment is capped at 15 percentage points, experimental and not yet calibrated. The track-record page is still demonstration data while resolved history is collected.

VARY is read-only. There is no wallet, no trading and nothing to sign — just two numbers and the distance between them.