VARY
POLITICSELECTIONSGEOPOLITICSSPORTSESPORTSCRYPTOFINANCEECONOMYMACROTECHCULTUREWEATHEROTHER
CATEGORY

POLITICS

Policy, appointments and party questions, with market odds beside our estimate.

LIVEUPDATED 10:11 PM

POLITICS MARKETS

15 MARKETS · POLITICS

POLITICS71d LEFT

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $39K
FULL

We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.2
  • Market Momentum (24h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.2
POLITICS436d LEFT

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

VARYNO87%
MARKET86%AGREEMENT
Market 14 percentVARY 13 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $4K
FULL

We read this 0.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (7d)0.6
  • Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS71d LEFT

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

VARYNO92%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 8 percentVARY 8 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $5K
FULL

We read this 0.2 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)1.4
  • Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS71d LEFT

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

VARYNO87%
MARKET86%AGREEMENT
Market 14 percentVARY 13 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $12K
FULL

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Volume Concentration-2.9
POLITICS41h LEFT

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $93K
FULL

We read this 4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Market Momentum (7d)-6.7
POLITICS71d LEFT

Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?

VARYYES59%
MARKET61%−2
Market 61 percentVARY 59 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $24K
FULL

We read this 1.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-4.4
  • Volume Concentration-1.3
POLITICS10d LEFT

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

VARYNO87%
MARKET90%−3
Market 10 percentVARY 13 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $31K
FULL

We read this 2.9 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)6
  • Market Momentum (24h)3.3
  • Volume Concentration0.3
POLITICS252d LEFT

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

VARYNO57%
MARKET56%AGREEMENT
Market 44 percentVARY 43 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $12K
FULL

We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.5
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.3
  • Volume Concentration-1.9
POLITICS71d LEFT

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?

VARYNO70%
MARKET70%AGREEMENT
Market 30 percentVARY 30 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $7K
FULL

We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-3
  • Market Momentum (24h)2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)2.2
POLITICS10d LEFT

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?

VARYNO96%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 4 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $10K
FULL

We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)1.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.3
  • Volume Concentration-1.3
POLITICS6d LEFT

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $8K
FULL

We read this 1.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.3
  • Market Momentum (24h)-8.1
  • Volume Concentration3
POLITICS41h LEFT

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

VARYNO85%
MARKET84%AGREEMENT
Market 16 percentVARY 15 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $4K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)2.5
  • Market Momentum (24h)-10
  • Market Momentum (7d)2
POLITICS3d LEFT

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?

VARYNO76%
MARKET79%−3
Market 21 percentVARY 24 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $4K
FULL

We read this 3 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)3
  • Market Momentum (24h)3.9
  • Volume Concentration3.1
POLITICS0h LEFT

Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? (copy)

VARYNO84%
MARKET84%AGREEMENT
Market 16 percentVARY 16 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $3K
FULL

We read this 0.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-7.7
  • Volume Concentration9
POLITICS9d LEFT

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $285
FULL

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.5
  • Volume Concentration-2.3