TRACK RECORD
EVERY FORECAST.
RECORDED.
Calibration matters more than a good screenshot.
DEMO DATA
Current records and statistics are illustrative while the real prediction-history system is being built.
- PREDICTIONS
- 128
- DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY
- 68%
- BRIER SCORE
- 0.18
- AVERAGE DIFFERENCE
- 7.4 pts
Measures the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. Lower is better.
CALIBRATION
A calibrated 70% forecast should occur roughly 70% of the time over many predictions.
- 50-59%OBSERVED 52% · N=34
- 60-69%OBSERVED 61% · N=41
- 70-79%OBSERVED 70% · N=28
- 80-89%OBSERVED 79% · N=17
RESOLVED FORECASTS
Sep 04BTC UpOURS 71%MKT 62%+9ptsRESULT YESCORRECT
Sep 04ETH Above $4.5KOURS 58%MKT 65%−7ptsRESULT NOMISSED
Sep 03SOL Up TodayOURS 66%MKT 54%+12ptsRESULT YESCORRECT
Sep 03DOGE Above $0.28OURS 39%MKT 52%−13ptsRESULT NOCORRECT
Sep 02BTC Above $112KOURS 55%MKT 51%+4ptsRESULT YESCORRECT
Sep 02ETH Outperforms BTCOURS 48%MKT 49%AGREEMENTRESULT YESMISSED
Sep 01BTC Down OvernightOURS 62%MKT 58%+4ptsRESULT YESCORRECT
Sep 01SOL Above $240OURS 44%MKT 57%−13ptsRESULT NOCORRECT
DEMO DATA · NO VERIFIED PERFORMANCE IS IMPLIED