CRYPTO
18h LEFT
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 62 percentVARY 70 percent
MARKET 62%+8ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?293 LIVE MARKETS
SEE THE GAP.
The market has a probability.
VARY has another.
FEATURED · CRYPTO · 18h LEFTWill the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?MARKET62%VARY70%YESGAP+8PTSNOYES
Market 62 percentVARY 70 percent
MARKET 62%VARY 70%
TRENDING TOPICS
BROWSE ALL →FEATURED · 16 CALLS
TODAY'S CALLS
70%
SPORTS
5h LEFT
Darius Garland: Assists O/U 7.5
VARY CALL
YESMarket 55 percentVARY 63 percent
MARKET 55%+8ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
WEATHER
14h LEFT
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 22?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 38 percentVARY 44 percent
MARKET 62%−6ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?CRYPTO
42h LEFT
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 23?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 67 percentVARY 73 percent
MARKET 67%+6ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?CRYPTO
3d LEFT
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 24?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 65 percentVARY 71 percent
MARKET 65%+6ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?SPORTS
2h LEFT
Keyonte George: Assists O/U 6.5
VARY CALL
YESMarket 45 percentVARY 51 percent
MARKET 45%+6ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
WEATHER
14h LEFT
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 22?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 11 percentVARY 16 percent
MARKET 89%−5ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
WEATHER
14h LEFT
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 22?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 52 percentVARY 57 percent
MARKET 52%+5ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
WEATHER
14h LEFT
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 22?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 52 percentVARY 57 percent
MARKET 52%+5ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
FINANCE
46h LEFT
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 18 percentVARY 13 percent
MARKET 82%+5ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY NO?SPORTS
2h LEFT
Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5
VARY CALL
YESMarket 55 percentVARY 60 percent
MARKET 55%+5ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
SPORTS
1h LEFT
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 62 percentVARY 66 percent
MARKET 62%+4ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
SPORTS
21h LEFT
Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-22?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 23 percentVARY 27 percent
MARKET 77%−4ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
POLITICS
3d LEFT
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 38 percentVARY 42 percent
MARKET 62%−4ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
CRYPTO
42h LEFT
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 23?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 91 percentVARY 95 percent
MARKET 91%+4ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
POLITICS
42h LEFT
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 15 percentVARY 11 percent
MARKET 85%+4ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY NO?ALL MARKETS
Our call, the market price, and the gap between them.
293 MARKETS
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
VARYNO84%
MARKET83%AGREEMENT
Market 17 percentVARY 16 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $122K
We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)1.1
- Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $112K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS71d LEFT
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $37K
We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-0.2
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.2
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
VARYNO94%
MARKET94%AGREEMENT
Market 6 percentVARY 6 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $76K
Our estimate matches the market — there is no gap worth acting on.
- Market Momentum (1h)2
- Market Momentum (24h)1.1
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS748d LEFT
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $6K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
WEATHER71d LEFT
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $64K
We read this 0.4 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)1.3
- Market Momentum (24h)1.9
- Market Momentum (7d)1
ELECTIONS748d LEFT
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
VARYNO81%
MARKET80%AGREEMENT
Market 20 percentVARY 19 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $11K
We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)-1.2
- Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY71d LEFT
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
VARYNO89%
MARKET88%AGREEMENT
Market 12 percentVARY 11 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $17K
We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)-1.1
- Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $21K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY7d LEFT
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
VARYNO91%
MARKET87%+4
Market 13 percentVARY 9 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $639K
We read this 3.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-8.8
- Volume Concentration-2.4
ELECTIONS71d LEFT
Trump out as President before 2027?
VARYNO96%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 4 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $46K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)0.4
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
VARYYES91%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 92 percentVARY 91 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $391K
We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)0.6
- Volume Concentration-2.6
ELECTIONS748d LEFT
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $36K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)0.3
- Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $16K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS6d LEFT
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
VARYNO74%
MARKET73%AGREEMENT
Market 27 percentVARY 26 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $390K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
- Market Momentum (7d)0.6
- Volume Concentration-2.5
ECONOMY71d LEFT
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
VARYYES96%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 97 percentVARY 96 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $31K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
CRYPTO71d LEFT
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $19K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-0.3
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS13d LEFT
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
VARYNO92%
MARKET91%AGREEMENT
Market 9 percentVARY 8 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $180K
We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
- Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS13d LEFT
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
VARYYES67%
MARKET66%AGREEMENT
Market 66 percentVARY 67 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $632K
We read this 0.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)2.2
- Market Momentum (7d)1.7
- Volume Concentration-1.9
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
VARYYES69%
MARKET71%−2
Market 71 percentVARY 69 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $360K
We read this 2.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)10
- Market Momentum (24h)-10
- Market Momentum (7d)-4.9
GEOPOLITICS71d LEFT
Iran leadership change by December 31?
VARYNO87%
MARKET87%AGREEMENT
Market 13 percentVARY 13 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $146K
We read this 0.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)1.1
- Market Momentum (7d)0.6
- Volume Concentration-2.7
SPORTS5d LEFT
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
VARYNO85%
MARKET82%+3
Market 18 percentVARY 15 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $133K
We read this 3.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-0.8
- Market Momentum (24h)-1.4
- Market Momentum (7d)-6.7
SPORTS45d LEFT
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
VARYYES97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 98 percentVARY 97 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $14K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)0.1
- Market Momentum (24h)-0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)0.2
ELECTIONS13d LEFT
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
VARYYES68%
MARKET67%AGREEMENT
Market 67 percentVARY 68 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $115K
We read this 0.7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)3.3
- Market Momentum (7d)1.7
- Volume Concentration-2.7
SHOWING 24 OF 293
RECENTLY RESOLVED
Calls we made before the outcome was known, scored after it was.
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. San Diego PadresCALLED YES 50%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas RangersCALLED NO 54%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxCALLED NO 51%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCALLED YES 50%
MARKET PULSE
Live spot prices behind the crypto markets above.
LAST GOOD DATAUPDATED 09:13 PMLIVE PRICES ARE UNAVAILABLE RIGHT NOW.
Live crypto data temporarily unavailable.
LAST SUCCESSFUL UPDATE: 09:13 PM
HOW VARY WORKS
We start from the market price, apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals, then show both numbers side by side. Every call is timestamped.
- 01
READ THE MARKET
Live odds from the market itself.
- 02
ADD OUR SIGNALS
Structure, momentum and live spot data.
- 03
BOUND THE MOVE
The adjustment can never run away.
- 04
RECORD IT
Every call is stored with a timestamp.
LIVE MARKET DATA · VARY EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATES