IRAN LEADERSHIP CHANGE BY...?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 87%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $145K
- LIQUIDITY
- $197K
- CLOSES
- 71D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- GEOPOLITICS
OUR TAKE
We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +0.6Market Momentum (7d)POSITIVE
- -2.7Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 13% with $197K of live liquidity and $145K traded in the last 24 hours.
Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.
Our signals shift the estimate down 0.6 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 14% → 13%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 12% → 13%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION NEGATIVE (-2.7)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 12%
Market 13% · bounded adjustment -1 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE