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DATA QUALITY

HIGH CONFIDENCE

Confidence describes how complete our data is for a market — not how likely the outcome is. If only a few markets qualify right now, only a few are shown.

LIVEUPDATED 10:10 PM

HIGH CONFIDENCE CALLS

8 MARKETS

ECONOMY7d LEFT

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

VARYNO91%
MARKET87%+4
Market 13 percentVARY 9 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $629K
FULL

We read this 3.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
  • Market Momentum (7d)-8.8
  • Volume Concentration-2.4
SPORTS5d LEFT

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

VARYNO87%
MARKET83%+4
Market 17 percentVARY 13 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $138K
FULL

We read this 4.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)-7.2
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

VARYNO68%
MARKET66%+2
Market 34 percentVARY 32 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $77K
FULL

We read this 1.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.6
  • Volume Concentration-2.7
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

VARYNO66%
MARKET68%−2
Market 32 percentVARY 34 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $61K
FULL

We read this 2 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)0.2
  • Market Momentum (24h)0.6
  • Market Momentum (7d)0.7
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

VARYNO68%
MARKET65%+3
Market 35 percentVARY 32 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $45K
FULL

We read this 3.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-2
  • Market Momentum (24h)-2.7
  • Market Momentum (7d)-3.9
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

VARYYES70%
MARKET71%AGREEMENT
Market 71 percentVARY 70 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $34K
FULL

We read this 1.1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.5
  • Market Momentum (7d)-1.1
  • Volume Concentration-2
ELECTIONS13d LEFT

Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $31K
FULL

We read this 1.5 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (24h)-0.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)-2.9
  • Volume Concentration-1.8
GEOPOLITICS10d LEFT

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

VARYNO93%
MARKET92%AGREEMENT
Market 8 percentVARY 7 percent
HIGHHIGH confidence24H $5K
FULL

We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

  • Market Momentum (1h)-0.1
  • Market Momentum (24h)-1.4
  • Market Momentum (7d)-0.2