VARY
POLITICSELECTIONSGEOPOLITICSSPORTSESPORTSCRYPTOFINANCEECONOMYMACROTECHCULTUREWEATHEROTHER

HOW MANY UK PRIME MINISTERS BY END OF 2027?

Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?

LIVE436D REMAININGVOL $50K · LIQ $136K · SPREAD 1.0%

VARY CALL

NO
89%
MARKET
89%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
LOWLOW confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES
Market 11 percentVARY 11 percent
MARKET 11%VARY 11%
24H VOLUME
$0
LIQUIDITY
$136K
CLOSES
436D REMAINING
CATEGORY
OTHER

OUR TAKE

Our estimate matches the market — there is no gap worth acting on.

WHY NO?

    SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

      Polymarket currently prices YES at 11% with $136K of live liquidity and $0 traded in the last 24 hours.

      Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.

      Our signals do not justify moving away from the market, so our estimate matches it.

      We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

      EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

      • Price Momentum25%
      • Prediction Market Momentum20%
      • Volume15%
      • Volatility15%
      • Order Book Imbalance15%
      • News Sentiment10%

      WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

      OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

      OUR MODEL MARKET

      MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

      WHAT CHANGED?

      1. NOWOUR ESTIMATE 11%

        Market 11% · bounded adjustment 0 pts.

      VIEW ON THE MARKET

      Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.

      EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE