BITCOIN PRICE ON OCTOBER 22?
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 64%
- DIFFERENCE
- +7pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $3K
- LIQUIDITY
- $26K
- CLOSES
- 17H 46M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- CRYPTO
OUR TAKE
We read this 7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY YES?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +4Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- +10Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +9.3Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 64% with $26K of live liquidity and $3K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 40 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 7 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 24% → 64%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 16% → 64%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) POSITIVE (+10)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 71%
Market 64% · bounded adjustment +7 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE