VARY
POLITICSELECTIONSGEOPOLITICSSPORTSESPORTSCRYPTOFINANCEECONOMYMACROTECHCULTUREWEATHEROTHER

BANK OF CANADA DECISION IN OCTOBER?

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

LIVE6D REMAININGVOL $163K · LIQ $38K · SPREAD 1.6%

VARY CALL

NO
89%
MARKET
82%
DIFFERENCE
+7pts
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES
Market 18 percentVARY 11 percent
MARKET 18%VARY 11%
24H VOLUME
$24K
LIQUIDITY
$38K
CLOSES
6D REMAINING
CATEGORY
ECONOMY

OUR TAKE

We read this 7.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

WHY NO?

  • MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
  • MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
  • MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
  • VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Market Momentum (1h)
    NEGATIVE
    -2.6
  • Market Momentum (24h)
    NEGATIVE
    -10
  • Market Momentum (7d)
    NEGATIVE
    -10
  • Volume Concentration
    NEGATIVE
    -1.3

Polymarket currently prices YES at 18% with $38K of live liquidity and $24K traded in the last 24 hours.

The market has moved down 12 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.

Our signals shift the estimate down 7.2 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Price Momentum25%
  • Prediction Market Momentum20%
  • Volume15%
  • Volatility15%
  • Order Book Imbalance15%
  • News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

  1. LAST 24HMARKET 30% → 18%

    Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.

  2. LAST 7DMARKET 79% → 18%
  3. NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) NEGATIVE (-10)
  4. NOWOUR ESTIMATE 11%

    Market 18% · bounded adjustment -7 pts.

VIEW ON THE MARKET

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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE