IRAN LEADER END OF 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 97%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $436
- LIQUIDITY
- $121K
- CLOSES
- 71D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- GEOPOLITICS
OUR TAKE
We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEUTRAL
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -0.2Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- 0Market Momentum (7d)NEUTRAL
- -3Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 3% with $121K of live liquidity and $436 traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 0 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate down 1 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION NEGATIVE (-3)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 3%
Market 3% · bounded adjustment 0 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE