TORONTO MAYORAL ELECTION WINNER
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 54%
- DIFFERENCE
- +7pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $20K
- LIQUIDITY
- $93K
- CLOSES
- 5D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- ELECTIONS
OUR TAKE
We read this 6.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -10Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- -10Market Momentum (7d)NEGATIVE
- -2Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 46% with $93K of live liquidity and $20K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 19 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate down 6.6 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 64% → 46%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 69% → 46%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) NEGATIVE (-10)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 39%
Market 46% · bounded adjustment -7 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE