HOW MANY FED RATE CUTS IN 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

LIVE71D REMAININGVOL $9.0M · LIQ $611K · SPREAD 0.1%

VARY CALL

YES

96%

MARKET: 97%
DIFFERENCE: AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE: LOWLOW confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES

MARKET 97%VARY 96%

24H VOLUME: $22K
LIQUIDITY: $611K
CLOSES: 71D REMAINING
CATEGORY: ECONOMY

OUR TAKE

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

WHY YES?

MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)POSITIVE
VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Market Momentum (7d)
POSITIVE
+0.1
Volume Concentration
NEGATIVE
-3

Polymarket currently prices YES at 97% with $611K of live liquidity and $22K traded in the last 24 hours.

Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.

Our signals shift the estimate down 0.9 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum25%
Prediction Market Momentum20%
Volume15%
Volatility15%
Order Book Imbalance15%
News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION NEGATIVE (-3)
NOWOUR ESTIMATE 96%
Market 97% · bounded adjustment -1 pts.

VIEW ON THE MARKET

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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE