MEXICO ANNUAL INFLATION 2026
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 91%
- DIFFERENCE
- +2pts
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $7K
- LIQUIDITY
- $2K
- CLOSES
- 79D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- SPORTS
OUR TAKE
We read this 2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +1.2Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- -4.8Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- -2.2Market Momentum (7d)NEGATIVE
- -0.8Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 9% with $2K of live liquidity and $7K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 4 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate down 2 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 13% → 9%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 13% → 9%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) NEGATIVE (-4.8)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 7%
Market 9% · bounded adjustment -2 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE