BALLON D'OR 2026: 2ND PLACE
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 85%
- DIFFERENCE
- −2pts
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $26K
- LIQUIDITY
- $12K
- CLOSES
- 71D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- SPORTS
OUR TAKE
We read this 1.9 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +2.8Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +3.5Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 15% with $12K of live liquidity and $26K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 3 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 1.9 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 13% → 15%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION POSITIVE (+3.5)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 17%
Market 15% · bounded adjustment +2 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE