VARY
POLITICSELECTIONSGEOPOLITICSSPORTSESPORTSCRYPTOFINANCEECONOMYMACROTECHCULTUREWEATHEROTHER

MLS CUP WINNER 2026

Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

LIVE71D REMAININGVOL $2.0M · LIQ $33K · SPREAD 0.2%

VARY CALL

NO
97%
MARKET
97%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MARKET 3%VARY 3%
24H VOLUME
$28
LIQUIDITY
$33K
CLOSES
71D REMAINING
CATEGORY
SPORTS

OUR TAKE

We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

WHY NO?

  • MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEUTRAL
  • VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Market Momentum (7d)
    NEUTRAL
    0
  • Volume Concentration
    NEGATIVE
    -3

Polymarket currently prices YES at 3% with $33K of live liquidity and $28 traded in the last 24 hours.

Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.

Our signals shift the estimate down 0.9 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Price Momentum25%
  • Prediction Market Momentum20%
  • Volume15%
  • Volatility15%
  • Order Book Imbalance15%
  • News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

  1. NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION NEGATIVE (-3)
  2. NOWOUR ESTIMATE 3%

    Market 3% · bounded adjustment 0 pts.

VIEW ON THE MARKET

Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE