WHAT PRICE WILL BITCOIN HIT ON OCTOBER 21?
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 21?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 96%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $65K
- LIQUIDITY
- $26K
- CLOSES
- 5H 1M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- CRYPTO
OUR TAKE
We read this 1.1 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -5.5Market Momentum (1h)NEGATIVE
- +9Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 4% with $26K of live liquidity and $65K traded in the last 24 hours.
Market pricing has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, so there is no fresh directional information in the order book.
Our signals shift the estimate up 1.1 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 3% → 4%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 3% → 4%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION POSITIVE (+9)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 5%
Market 4% · bounded adjustment +1 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE