VARY
POLITICSELECTIONSGEOPOLITICSSPORTSESPORTSCRYPTOFINANCEECONOMYMACROTECHCULTUREWEATHEROTHER

SERBIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WINNER

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

LIVE4D REMAININGVOL $1.1M · LIQ $374K · SPREAD 1.0%

VARY CALL

YES
66%
MARKET
67%
DIFFERENCE
AGREEMENT
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES
Market 67 percentVARY 66 percent
MARKET 67%VARY 66%
24H VOLUME
$211K
LIQUIDITY
$374K
CLOSES
4D REMAINING
CATEGORY
ELECTIONS

OUR TAKE

We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.

WHY YES?

  • MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
  • MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
  • MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)POSITIVE
  • VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Market Momentum (1h)
    NEGATIVE
    -2
  • Market Momentum (24h)
    NEGATIVE
    -2.2
  • Market Momentum (7d)
    POSITIVE
    +2.2
  • Volume Concentration
    NEGATIVE
    -0.6

Polymarket currently prices YES at 67% with $374K of live liquidity and $211K traded in the last 24 hours.

The market has moved down 2 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.

Our signals shift the estimate down 0.8 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

  • Price Momentum25%
  • Prediction Market Momentum20%
  • Volume15%
  • Volatility15%
  • Order Book Imbalance15%
  • News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

  1. LAST 24HMARKET 69% → 67%

    Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.

  2. LAST 7DMARKET 62% → 67%
  3. NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) NEGATIVE (-2.2)
  4. NOWOUR ESTIMATE 66%

    Market 67% · bounded adjustment -1 pts.

VIEW ON THE MARKET

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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE