US-IRAN CEASEFIRE CONTINUES THROUGH...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 73%
- DIFFERENCE
- −3pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $391K
- LIQUIDITY
- $83K
- CLOSES
- 10D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- GEOPOLITICS
OUR TAKE
We read this 2.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY YES?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +6Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- -9.4Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- -3.6Market Momentum (7d)NEGATIVE
- -2.1Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 73% with $83K of live liquidity and $391K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 8 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate down 2.7 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 82% → 76%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 80% → 76%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) NEGATIVE (-9.4)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 70%
Market 73% · bounded adjustment -3 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE