WHO WINS THE SENATE PENDING OIL BELOW $85 BEFORE THE MIDTERMS?
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 97%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- HIGHHIGH confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $31K
- LIQUIDITY
- $301K
- CLOSES
- 13D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- ELECTIONS
OUR TAKE
We read this 1.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONNEGATIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -0.1Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- -2.9Market Momentum (7d)NEGATIVE
- -1.8Volume ConcentrationNEGATIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 3% with $301K of live liquidity and $31K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 0 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate down 1.4 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 7DMARKET 8% → 3%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (7D) NEGATIVE (-2.9)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 3%
Market 3% · bounded adjustment 0 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE