WHO WINS THE SENATE PENDING OIL ABOVE OR BELOW $80 BEFORE THE MIDTERMS?
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 68%
- DIFFERENCE
- −2pts
- CONFIDENCE
- HIGHHIGH confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $61K
- LIQUIDITY
- $319K
- CLOSES
- 13D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- ELECTIONS
OUR TAKE
We read this 2 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (7D)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +0.2Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- +0.7Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +0.8Market Momentum (7d)POSITIVE
- +5.1Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 32% with $319K of live liquidity and $61K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 1 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 2 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 7DMARKET 31% → 32%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION POSITIVE (+5.1)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 34%
Market 32% · bounded adjustment +2 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE