SUNS VS. TRAIL BLAZERS
Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 61%
- DIFFERENCE
- −7pts
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $15
- LIQUIDITY
- $25K
- CLOSES
- 2H 58M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- SPORTS
OUR TAKE
We read this 7 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +10Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- +4.4Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +9Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 39% with $25K of live liquidity and $15 traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 4 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 7 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 35% → 39%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 50% → 39%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (1H) POSITIVE (+10)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 46%
Market 39% · bounded adjustment +7 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE