MAVERICKS VS. ROCKETS

Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5

CLOSING SOON1H 29M REMAININGVOL $1K · LIQ $26K · SPREAD 8.0%

VARY CALL

YES

55%

MARKET: 52%
DIFFERENCE: +3pts
CONFIDENCE: LOWLOW confidence

MARKET VS VARY

NOYES

MARKET 52%VARY 55%

24H VOLUME: $369
LIQUIDITY: $26K
CLOSES: 1H 29M REMAINING
CATEGORY: SPORTS

OUR TAKE

We read this 2.8 points higher than the market, based on market structure.

WHY YES?

MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Market Momentum (1h)
NEGATIVE
-2
Market Momentum (24h)
POSITIVE
+10
Volume Concentration
POSITIVE
+1.2

Polymarket currently prices YES at 52% with $26K of live liquidity and $369 traded in the last 24 hours.

The market has moved up 25 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.

Our signals shift the estimate up 2.8 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum25%
Prediction Market Momentum20%
Volume15%
Volatility15%
Order Book Imbalance15%
News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

LAST 24HMARKET 27% → 53%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
LAST 7DMARKET 50% → 53%
NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (24H) POSITIVE (+10)
NOWOUR ESTIMATE 55%
Market 52% · bounded adjustment +3 pts.

VIEW ON THE MARKET

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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE