HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN MANILA ON OCTOBER 22?
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 22?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 53%
- DIFFERENCE
- +4pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $3K
- LIQUIDITY
- $34K
- CLOSES
- 13H 1M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- WEATHER
OUR TAKE
We read this 4 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY YES?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +6.1Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +7.1Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 53% with $34K of live liquidity and $3K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 6 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 4 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 48% → 53%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 23% → 53%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION POSITIVE (+7.1)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 57%
Market 53% · bounded adjustment +4 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE