HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN ISTANBUL ON OCTOBER 22?
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 65%
- DIFFERENCE
- +7pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $11K
- LIQUIDITY
- $3K
- CLOSES
- 13H 1M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- WEATHER
OUR TAKE
We read this 7.2 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY YES?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)POSITIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- +10Market Momentum (1h)POSITIVE
- +10Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +4.1Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 65% with $3K of live liquidity and $11K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 19 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 7.2 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 40% → 65%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 2% → 65%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (1H) POSITIVE (+10)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 72%
Market 65% · bounded adjustment +7 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE