ETHEREUM ABOVE ___ ON OCTOBER 22?
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 22?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 97%
- DIFFERENCE
- AGREEMENT
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $18K
- LIQUIDITY
- $37K
- CLOSES
- 17H 1M REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- CRYPTO
OUR TAKE
Our estimate matches the market — there is no gap worth acting on.
WHY NO?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)NEGATIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -1Market Momentum (1h)NEGATIVE
- -1.7Market Momentum (24h)NEGATIVE
- +2.6Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 3% with $37K of live liquidity and $18K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved down 2 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals do not justify moving away from the market, so our estimate matches it.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 4% → 3%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 15% → 3%
- NOWVOLUME CONCENTRATION POSITIVE (+2.6)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 3%
Market 3% · bounded adjustment 0 pts.
Referral link — VARY/6ixOnchain may earn rewards if eligible when you sign up or trade through this link. It does not change your odds or pricing.
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE