BITCOIN ABOVE ___ ON OCTOBER 25?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 25?
VARY CALL
- MARKET
- 60%
- DIFFERENCE
- +2pts
- CONFIDENCE
- LOWLOW confidence
MARKET VS VARY
- 24H VOLUME
- $3K
- LIQUIDITY
- $41K
- CLOSES
- 4D REMAINING
- CATEGORY
- CRYPTO
OUR TAKE
We read this 2.5 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
WHY YES?
- MARKET MOMENTUM (1H)NEGATIVE
- MARKET MOMENTUM (24H)POSITIVE
- VOLUME CONCENTRATIONPOSITIVE
SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- -10Market Momentum (1h)NEGATIVE
- +10Market Momentum (24h)POSITIVE
- +8.2Volume ConcentrationPOSITIVE
Polymarket currently prices YES at 60% with $41K of live liquidity and $3K traded in the last 24 hours.
The market has moved up 23 points over the last 24 hours, so pricing is still adjusting rather than settled.
Our signals shift the estimate up 2.5 points from the market price. Adjustments are capped, experimental and not calibrated.
We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
- Price Momentum25%
- Prediction Market Momentum20%
- Volume15%
- Volatility15%
- Order Book Imbalance15%
- News Sentiment10%
WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED
OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET
MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT
WHAT CHANGED?
- LAST 24HMARKET 36% → 59%
Polymarket mid-price movement over the last day.
- LAST 7DMARKET 21% → 59%
- NOWMARKET MOMENTUM (1H) NEGATIVE (-10)
- NOWOUR ESTIMATE 62%
Market 60% · bounded adjustment +2 pts.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE