BITCOIN

BTC Above $120K This Month?

LIVE25D REMAININGVOL $6.3M · LIQ $890K

DEMO DATA

VARY CALL

YES

63%

MARKET: 54%
DIFFERENCE: +9pts
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence

NOYES

MARKET 54%OURS 63%

OUR TAKE

The path to $120K is inside one standard monthly range at current volatility.

WHY YES?

PRICE MOMENTUMPOSITIVE
VOLUMEPOSITIVE
PREDICTION MARKET MOMENTUMPOSITIVE
ORDER FLOWPOSITIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum
POSITIVE
+6
Volume
POSITIVE
+5
Prediction Market Momentum
POSITIVE
+3
Order Flow
POSITIVE
+4
Volatility
POSITIVE
+1
News Sentiment
POSITIVE
+2

The required move sits within one standard monthly range given realized volatility.

Spot demand has absorbed every dip this month without breaking the trend.

Market odds look anchored to the round number rather than the distribution.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum25%
Prediction Market Momentum20%
Volume15%
Volatility15%
Order Book Imbalance15%
News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

13:0261% → 63%
09:30MARKET 55% → 54%

DEMO DATA · EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE