BITCOIN

Bitcoin Up Tomorrow?

LIVE18H 34M REMAININGVOL $4.8M · LIQ $610K

DEMO DATA

VARY CALL

YES

71%

MARKET: 62%
DIFFERENCE: +9pts
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence

NOYES

MARKET 62%OURS 71%

OUR TAKE

Short-term momentum and volume currently favor YES, while elevated volatility limits confidence.

WHY YES?

PRICE MOMENTUMPOSITIVE
VOLUMEPOSITIVE
PREDICTION MARKET MOMENTUMPOSITIVE
ORDER FLOWPOSITIVE

SIGNAL LEDGER · EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum
POSITIVE
+8
Volume
POSITIVE
+4
Prediction Market Momentum
POSITIVE
+6
Order Flow
POSITIVE
+3
Volatility
NEGATIVE
-2
News Sentiment
POSITIVE
+1

Bitcoin has held positive short-term momentum while prediction-market odds have moved more slowly.

Trading volume sits above its recent average and current order flow remains mildly positive.

Volatility is elevated, which prevents a high-confidence estimate.

We start from the market price, then apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals — market structure, momentum and, for crypto markets, live spot data. The adjustment can never exceed 15 percentage points. The model is experimental and not yet calibrated.

EXPERIMENTAL MODEL

Price Momentum25%
Prediction Market Momentum20%
Volume15%
Volatility15%
Order Book Imbalance15%
News Sentiment10%

WEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT VALIDATED

OUR ESTIMATE vs MARKET

OUR MODEL MARKET

MARKET PATH FROM POLYMARKET · OUR PATH APPLIES THE CURRENT BOUNDED ADJUSTMENT

WHAT CHANGED?

12:4567% → 71%
BTC gained 0.8% while prediction-market odds stayed almost flat.
11:20MARKET 59% → 62%
09:10VOLUME SIGNAL TURNED POSITIVE
06:3564% → 67%
Order flow flipped positive across spot venues.

DEMO DATA · EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY ESTIMATES · VARY IS READ-ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE